Gudauri
Natural avalanches are possible, human-triggered avalanches are likely. Small avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas, or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
A significant amount of snow has fallen since Thursday evening. This will need time to stabilise. There are fragile layers under the recent snow which could create large avalanches. Warm temperatures and a mix of sun and cloud today increase the chance of wet snow avalanches. Even small avalanches can set off much larger avalanches today.
Forecast issued at: 26 March 2024 09:00
Forecast valid until: 28 March 2024 09:00
Forecaster: Luke Frisken
High Alpine
> 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slab
More than a meter of snow has fallen over past week and a half, above crusts and weak layers at higher elevations. Be wary of steep areas where these layers could fail under your weight or from smaller movements of surface snow - large avalanches could happen if deeper layers are broken.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Persistent Slab
Weak, sugary snow has been found in the upper and mid snowpack at higher elevations on various aspects, in some areas above a crust. Whumphing has been observed in some places. Large slab avalanches could be triggered by the additional weight of new snow or by a smaller surface avalanche. These problems will be worse in the north of the region and areas where the snow is shallower.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Wind Slab
The forecast for wind today is uncertain, however there is lots of loose snow available for transport to form wind slabs so keep your eyes out for snow blowing across ridges.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Low |
Loose Wet
When the new snow is hit by sun, especially when cloud traps in the heat, loose snow avalanches are likely. These may also be the trigger for a larger slab avalanche. Be very aware of terrain traps below you and stay out from under steep sunny faces, for example lower Kobi valley.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Recent avalanche activity:
25 March - Multiple size 3 slabs, N aspect along the ridge E of Arakhveti on or near Mujukhi.
21 March - Natural size 3 storm slab, SW aspect, in Kobe Valley next to the waterfall, likely triggered by loose wet avalanche. Several size 1 to 2 slab avalanches on W and SE aspects with some evidence of step-down between layers.
20 March - Natural size 3 storm slab, S side of Sadzele 3200 m, and another nearby size 3 avalanche on SW side of Konstitucion (Black Ridge) at 3100m. Both of these were likely triggered by smaller loose wet slides from above. Several recent natural slab avalanches on Lomisa Ridge (NE aspect). A report of a probable size 2 skier triggered slide on a shady aspect in Kobe valley. Multiple small loose wet slides on S aspects.
Glide slabs continue to be active on multiple aspects (more commonly E, S and W), some up to size 2. These can release at any time - if you see cracks in the snow, do not stop under these areas!
Snowpack:
Around 80 cm of new snow has been measured since Thursday night, with mild temperatures and rain at times on the lower mountain. The new snow has landed on a snowpack with weak facet layers and crusts buried in the upper half. Whumphing and very easy failures in testing have been observed. You should check the snow carefully before riding as these layers have the potential to form quite big avalanches with light loads. Cornices in some locations along ridge tops are getting large (particularly on Lomisa Ridge); treat them with respect.
Weather
Partly cloudy in the morning, overcast in the afternoon. Moderate to light S to SW winds. Occasional light snow shower during the day. Freezing level 1800 m lowering to 400 m in the evening.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.