Gudauri
Natural avalanches are unlikely, human-triggered avalanches are possible. Small avalanches in specific areas, or large avalanches in isolated areas.
The recent snow has formed storm and wind slabs that need a few days to stabilize. At higher elevations, these slabs are bonded poorly where the underlying snow is dry and weak (facetted). Weak layers deeper inside the snow remain a concern. While there have been no reports of activity on these layers, a large additional load, or a smaller avalanche might trigger them in steep terrain. As before: "Moderate" (2) hazard does not mean "low" hazard! - human-triggered avalanches are possible.
Forecast issued at: 11 March 2024 08:00
Forecast valid until: 13 March 2024 08:00
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slab
Recent snow has fallen on top of weak, sugary, and non-cohesive snow crystals at the surface. This new is bonding poorly with underlying, faceted/sugary snow at higher elevations, and wide slab avalanches could be triggered on the sugary snow. It might take a few days for this problem to improve. This snow will settle and bond faster in lower elevations (below about 2500 m) with warmer temperatures.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Wind Slab
Winds from the S and W on Friday and Saturday created small slabs near ridges, which will take a few days to stabilize. Due to variable winds, these lee areas can cover several aspects.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Persistent Slab
Weak, facetted snow layers are present in the upper and mid snowpack, more problematic around crusts and in areas with shallow snow depth. These problems may be worse in the north of the region where the snow is shallower. Note that surface wind or storm slab avalanches may trigger this weak layer layer layer.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Loose Wet
Mild temperatures and direct solar radiation increase the likelihood of small wet-loose avalanches, both skier-trigger and natural, especially from mid-day onwards and in the afternoon.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Recent avalanche activity:
10 March - Skier triggered size 2-3 in Little Alaska, Milioni, NW Aspect, 2800 m.
Glide slabs continue to be active on multiple aspects (more commonly E, S and W) below about 2600 m, some up to size 2. These can release at any time - if you see cracks in the snow, do not stop under these areas!
Snowpack:
20 - 30 cm of recent new snow (Thursday / Friday) fell on 10 - 20 cm of low-density, faceted surface snow in shady places, with a thin crust found above this weak snow layer. This combination has created a weak interface, and as it settles and becomes denser, slab activity is more likely. There are also areas of wind-loading near ridges in the high alpine zone which adds weight and potential to this weak interface. Facetted snow has been found deeper in the snowpack in some places, often around buried crusts, especially on N aspects at higher elevations where the snow is shallow - e.g. a facet layer down 60 cm was reactive in recent instability tests on a NE aspect at 3000 m.
Weather
Sun and cloud with snow showers possible for the next 2 days. Freezing level. Winds light and mostly W / SW.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.