Gudauri
Natural avalanches are unlikely, human-triggered avalanches are possible. Small avalanches in specific areas, or large avalanches in isolated areas.
Windslabs in the high alpine on E aspects are gaining strength slowly but are still a possibility. Storm snow that was not wind-affected could also produce avalanches at lower elevations mostly on E aspects. Areas of shallow snow (<1 m) at high elevations in rocky areas and near ridgelines should be approached with caution.
Forecast issued at: 11 January 2024 22:00
Forecast valid until: 13 January 2024 22:00
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slab
Moderate to strong SW winds have formed wind slabs in the high alpine on N and E aspects. These are gaining strength but heavy loads could trigger them. They could be up to 60 cm deep. Be cautious on E aspects below ridges and roll-overs in the high alpine or where you see build-ups or 'pillows' of hard snow on steep slopes.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Storm Slab
30cm of new snow and light winds on the 9th mean that storm slabs are a possibility in the alpine zone where the snow was not very wind affected, especially on steep slopes. The problem seems to be confined to E aspects where new snow depth is greater.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Glide
Glide cracks and full-depth glide avalanches are common around this area, and this time of year they begin to be more of a problem. These avalanches can release randomly on all aspects, even at night, although rapid warming makes them more likely. This problem will continue for the rest of the season. Do not stop under steep areas if there are cracks above you. Remember that new snow or wind-drifting can disguise these cracks.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Persistent Slab
A weak layer above a melt-freeze crust has been found near the ski area. It likely needs a large trigger, such as a smaller avalanche, to set it off. Only found on an East aspect so far, but may also exist on South and West too in certain spots. Have a dig, and let us know your observations!
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Avalanche Activity:
11th January - multiple size 1 - 2 storm and wind slabs seen on E, NE and S aspects, 2200 - 3000m, Chrdili, Khada and Lomisa - Mkheti ridge. New glide slabs also observed.
10th january, size 1 skier triggered windslab, Kobi Valley, 2300m, E aspect, 20cm deep.
8th January - multiple new glide slabs up to size 2 seen around Gudauri backcountry, most aspects below 3000m.
Snowpack:
30-35cm of new snow fell on Jan 9th with light winds at lower levels but moderate to strong SW winds higher up. Today (Jan 11th) the snow was well-bonded with good skiing at lower elevations. The previous snowpack seemed mostly stable with no concerning failures in recent tests on N aspect 2100m and NE aspect 3000m. Faceted snow has been found in shallow rocky areas near ridges. A melt-freeze crust with facets above has been found on an E aspect at 2970m, Bidara. Wet snow at lower elevations has re-frozen forming a melt-freeze crust.
Check recent profiles at snowpilot.org
Weather
30-35cm new snow Jan 9th with strong SW - W winds in the high alpine, lighter winds lower down, cold temperatures without much wind on 10th and 11th.
Forecast: Jan 11th and 12th, mix of sun and clouds, light to moderate W and S winds, freezing level 450 - 1050m.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.